Aqua and broiler feed industries drive Vietnam feed market growth in 2019

Vietnam is one of world’s top pork consuming countries and stands second in Asia only to China. The hog industry has developed rapidly since the 1990s and is the key driver of the local feed industry. After the 2017 price crash crisis, only big players with fully integrated production cycles survived, as they could produce with very tight margin. Today, the Vietnam hog industry is facing African Swine Fever (ASF), which will disrupt production and the feed market in the coming years. However, despite the issues in the animal husbandry sector, Vietnam’s feed industry is still expected to expand at a modest rate in calendar year (CY) 2019, supported by the higher growth in aquaculture and broiler industries. Post forecasts that the sector remain almost unchanged in CY20.

Demand-side

In CY 2019, Post estimates that total demand will increase slightly, from 30 to 30.5 MMT, while Post forecasts that total demand will remain at the same level in CY 2020. While animal feed demand will decline slightly, aqua feed production will make up a larger part of total production, rising from 6.2 MMT in CY18 to 6.8 MMT in CY 2019 and 7.0 MMT in 2020.

Within animal feed, the true decline is from the homemade sector because ASF is mainly affecting small-scale farms. Manufactured feed is still increasing, mainly for the poultry sector. There is also the decrease in homemade aqua feed, as large feed manufacturers change focus from the hog sector with no growth potential, to the aqua sector.

Supply-side

Corn and DDGS imports are likely to increase in CY19. Overall CY19 feed wheat imports will decline from CY18 due to uncompetitive prices and uncertainty over quarantine inspections due to recent Cirsium arvense detections. Supplies of local broken rice and local cassava for feed are declining.

Prices for pork and broilers have a great impact on Vietnam’s local feed production, since pork accounts for 75 percent and chicken accounts for 10 percent of total meat consumption. The Figure above shows pork prices below VND 35,000 per kilo in February 2018. According to farmers, production costs range from VND 35,000-40,000 per kilogram. However, prices rose steadily until December 2018 when they fell as a result of increased production in preparation for Tet. Poultry prices have followed a similar trend general in CY18.

Source: USDA

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